Game Theory: Did Dream FAKE His Speedrun? A Final Analysis.

17 janv. 2021
3 480 047 Vues

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There has been a controversy brewing on the Minecraft side of FRlift centered around well known Minecraft creator Dream. He's been accused of faking his speedrun and it has caused a lot of stir. I'm not here to point fingers or accuse anyone. What I'm doing today, Theorists, is going over the facts of this situation and why it is a lot more complicated than people are making it out to be.
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#Dream #DreamSpeedrun #Speedrun #DreamSMP #Minecraft #MinecraftTheory #MinecraftLore #MinecraftUpdate #MatPat #Theory #GameTheory
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Writers: Matthew Patrick and Justin Kuiper
Editors: Dan "Cybert" Seibert, Alex "Sedge" Sedgwick, Forrest Lee, Tyler Mascola, and Koen Verhagen
Assistant Editor: AlyssaBeCrazy
Sound Editor: Yosi Berman

  • Not Minecraft one dood onesix Minecraft one dood sixteen!

    Dragon2008GamerDragon2008GamerIl y a 2 heures
  • So many people are saying: "Oh but it's IMPOSSIBLE to prove that dream 100% cheated! And thus I believe that he didn't!" In the comment section, as if this is the conclusion that MatPat concluded. Dude, with that kind of argument, people can say "I got struck by lightning 100x in a row and survived, and since you can't 100% proove that I cheated, it clearly means that I didn't". It's heavily flawed logic, it's really just objectively wrong.

    Reaper ZReaper ZIl y a 2 heures
  • I gotta admit, I absolutely love Dream and I can admit that he probably did cheat though I nervous about saying I like him because everyone is just going to say I'm a Dream stan. I'm not, I like him for everything else he does that doesn't correspond with his speed runs. It's messed up that he didn't admit to cheating if he did (which is quite likely) but everyone has done at least one stupid thing and not admitted to it. Why can't we appreciate the other things he does instead like the SMP? I'm just not going to watch his speed runs but I'll watch his other things. Dream is a great youtuber and he shouldn't be defined by this flaw- Just my thoughts, everyone is entitled to their own opinions! ^^

    Nightcloud36Nightcloud36Il y a 2 heures
  • Matpat got 8th on trending noice

    HhsduOPHhsduOPIl y a 2 heures
  • My kemistry teacher is really good

    bruhbruhIl y a 2 heures
  • So did dream cheat ?

    Nathan LeNathan LeIl y a 2 heures
  • If people want to run the category, they can. "This category is bad." is a weird conclusion.

    Danielle ScorgieDanielle ScorgieIl y a 2 heures
  • If everyone had the same seed to do during the same tournament it would be good that’s what Rubik’s cube tournaments do

    Itsuki ChengItsuki ChengIl y a 2 heures
  • I honestly don’t care if he cheated or not. I’m sick of the drama. It’s so annoying.

    NightmareNightmareIl y a 2 heures
  • I have a question that still in my head, what about the top three or five players that are better then dreams speedrun how come no one talks about them and they only blame dream and even analyze if his speedrun is not cheating instead of the top 1 player? Edit: hope you can answer this matpat if not who will, Im not saying the top players are cheating, im saying why they where never talked about.

    MUTANT15MUTANT15Il y a 2 heures
    • they are not talked about becuse they did not cheat, dream was not talked about (in seans of speadrunning) becuse he did not cheat

      Soviet Doge- So Soviet So Communist So WoWSoviet Doge- So Soviet So Communist So WoWIl y a 2 heures
  • Hey matpat what is Multy player in minecraft? Is it the time before the wither or is it the future. A future where Steve dint fight the ender dragon and make a family?

    gami bossgami bossIl y a 2 heures
  • Flipping a coin ten times and getting 7+ heads

    Cody CrewCody CrewIl y a 2 heures
  • Thanks for creating such great video and they are amazing and wonderful. I love the brainwave music and hope more people can enjoy it too.

    InstantBrainwaveInstantBrainwaveIl y a 2 heures
  • So post teen mean and adopt me yes Roblox adopt me Roblox is a game but matpat keeps talking about everything else ;-;

    tina and Ellytina and EllyIl y a 2 heures
  • If you look at Speedruns for Zelda Wind Waker, you would notice that people have figured out how to assess certain values in order to guarantee a specific result for Rupee Drops, maybe he's figured out the proper dance to bend NPCs to his will

    LodanSDLodanSDIl y a 2 heures
  • did dream cheat? mat: well let's talk about the purpose and meaning of speedrunning.

    Zi XiongZi XiongIl y a 2 heures
  • *roasts yt trending tab* *is #2 on yt trending tab*

    Anthony ValenciaAnthony ValenciaIl y a 2 heures
    • might wanna change ur picture

      ValmerixValmerixIl y a 2 heures
  • Who say ,, Minecraft one point one six'' instead ,,Minecraft one sixteen''?

    ReflexivoArcoReflexivoArcoIl y a 2 heures
  • idk about the quiz thing, because in the first one there only needs to be 2 abnormalities (outside of expected results) whereas in the second there needs to be 10, but it is a lot less likely to get perfect normalities in the second one because it is one number out of 100 possibilities. This is probably all wrong cos i know nothing about probability but i’m just writing my thought process.

    BeepDuckBeepDuckIl y a 2 heures
    • i was almost right

      BeepDuckBeepDuckIl y a 2 heures
  • I'm so sorry I have to say it like that but your take towards the end is the worst you could possibly have. The category exists because the community wants it to exist, people run it. No one is forcing Dream to run a category he perceives as broken and instead of cheating he could have just chosen to, uhm, I don't know.. just not run it?

    ichi1082ichi1082Il y a 2 heures
  • Dream Minecraft; will this finally be the milkable topic to replace the endless stream of fnaf game theory videos? Lol probably not.

    Ivy OhIvy OhIl y a 2 heures
  • So what i got from this is at the end of the day math and statistics can really only give a "its very unlikely, but not impossible" type of answer to things

    Brown MagicBrown MagicIl y a 2 heures
  • what i came for: info that may make dream innocent what i learned: celeste room randomizer should be a speedrun

    MelecieDiancieMelecieDiancieIl y a 2 heures
    • @levi Ackerman i do know that, i've seen the responses of the mod team, dream, ant, karl, mfb, and this and reasons why dream cheated heavily outweigh the counterresponses. i'm just here to see if there would be arguments for dream and any counterresponses to those, as i like to take both sides' arguments

      MelecieDiancieMelecieDiancieIl y a 2 heures
    • Dream cheated face it the guy dream hired told that the drop rates were modified intentionally​ or unintentionally

      levi Ackermanlevi AckermanIl y a 2 heures
  • Analysis but the ysis is silent

    ThanosThanosIl y a 2 heures
  • 18:52 who else thought that the blue side is bigger then the red side???

    Honey_ teaHoney_ teaIl y a 2 heures
  • everyone: wants to know if dream cheated matpat: *heres a document preparation software called Latex*

    Johann Alyosha Van TasselJohann Alyosha Van TasselIl y a 2 heures
  • 23:30 seconds to not answer the question and say Minecraft shouldn’t have a record board for speed running. Yes the record board made him cheat

    Ian MichaelIan MichaelIl y a 2 heures
  • 8:20 *_It is the first option is more likely._* Being correct _7 out of 10_ times is *7/10.* But _60 out of 100_ is *6/10.*

    Cryptic CorgiCryptic CorgiIl y a 2 heures
  • Listen the king's sacrifice is the best chess move in the history of humanity No one care about dream cheating

    ichigo kurosakiichigo kurosakiIl y a 2 heures
  • Actual answer: Yes The answer we got: And that’s why tf2 is a bad game. Wait what video is this again?

    Jack Of AstoraJack Of AstoraIl y a 2 heures

    ArbiterArbiterIl y a 3 heures
    • yes dream cheated

      Soviet Doge- So Soviet So Communist So WoWSoviet Doge- So Soviet So Communist So WoWIl y a 2 heures
  • Matpat could you do a video about the scps

    Crypter CoderCrypter CoderIl y a 3 heures
  • Okay random statement but robert do be sounding like Saiki K and kyo ifykyk

    Vocaloid Flower Girl 2000Vocaloid Flower Girl 2000Il y a 3 heures
  • So did he cheat?

    Khawar ParvezKhawar ParvezIl y a 3 heures
  • Jewelry me ñø

    Elliot ManleyElliot ManleyIl y a 3 heures
  • as a speedrunner myself, i have no problem with a speedrun being based around luck. Many games have to be speedrun that way and still are. Peoplespeedrun those games because they enjoy it and there's no point contesting the way that games are speedrun if people enjoy it. but that competitive speedrunning thing would be really cool

    JaguarioJaguarioIl y a 3 heures
  • how did he predict it would go to the FRlift trending tab he is a wizard

    Jose PioJose PioIl y a 3 heures
  • 8:20 ide say the first option becouse when you flip a coin 10 times to get heads in 7 times is like flipping a coin 100 times to get 70 heads there is no differences in there the only difference is that the second option is more specific

    Honey_ teaHoney_ teaIl y a 3 heures
  • hellsbells

    stephane pasquerstephane pasquerIl y a 3 heures
  • My answer for the question around 8:30 is that neither of them are more likely, their both 50/50 because no matter how many times you flip a coin the outcome come will always be either heads or tails. Thank you for listening to my ted talk. Edit: I just realised what the question was......

    Orange Sl1meOrange Sl1meIl y a 3 heures
  • 60 heads

    Sean FrenchSean FrenchIl y a 3 heures
  • 69

    Callan WessonCallan WessonIl y a 3 heures
  • The amount of work in this video is insane

    Razgy MicRazgy MicIl y a 3 heures
  • Mr beast is buying the whole store in the background lol

    DS .VDS .VIl y a 3 heures

    jose Homshawjose HomshawIl y a 3 heures
  • 9:55 #4 on trending *face palms*

    DERPY DUDEDERPY DUDEIl y a 3 heures
  • matpat makes fun of yt trending page matpat ends up on trending

    ehehehrhehr noehehehrhehr noIl y a 3 heures

    NatlibuzNatlibuzIl y a 3 heures
  • All your videos makes me think hard and am intrigued

    lil zerksolil zerksoIl y a 3 heures
  • This video is on the FRlift trending tab 😂

    MainZMainZIl y a 3 heures
  • I will save you 23 minutes: You dont get the answer in this video.......he rather talks about how minecraft 1.16 speedrunning is broken

    InfoBluesInfoBluesIl y a 3 heures
  • I will save you 23 minutes: You dont get the answer in this video.......he rather talks about how minecraft 1.16 speedrunning is broken

    31-Rishit Jain31-Rishit JainIl y a 3 heures
  • This is your most lazy video yet Mat, you literally didnt add anything or answer the question in YOUR TITLE OF THE VIDEO. Disappointing.

    DosantDosantIl y a 3 heures

    Ragib Nihal TonmoyRagib Nihal TonmoyIl y a 3 heures
  • Where is the last Petscop theory???????

    ZeGamerWolfZeGamerWolfIl y a 3 heures
  • so dream is just some luck god, okay.

    Eagle PowerEagle PowerIl y a 3 heures
  • I would like my own minecraft speedrunner monkey

    DonutLover GamingDonutLover GamingIl y a 3 heures
  • I love the conclusion.

    Clarissa MClarissa MIl y a 3 heures
  • My question is WHY would they make speedrunning a big competition? Like it’s just gonna start drama (for example: the Dream drama) AND who cares! Speedrunning should be made for fun! Not something that should be taken very seriously! It’s like a middle school gym sport fight of “OH BRUHHH WE COULD HAVE WON!!!” “BRUHHH THEY CHEATED” “BRUHHH YOU SUCK” Like- Dudes- Chill- Please-

    CandyPopCandyPopIl y a 3 heures
    • @yunus ahmet yılmaz ohhh! Oh nonononono I was talking to the people who make speedrunning a big competitive thing like middle schoolers in gym fighting. My apologies, misread that. Speedrunning actually looks fun to do! It’s just I don’t like that people would make such a big deal over it (And cause drama) (Also it’s 6:55 am for me and I haven’t slept AT ALL yea again my apologies)

      CandyPopCandyPopIl y a 2 heures
    • @CandyPop you didn't just say what you tought about speedrunnig you spat on people who speedrun because your fetus head can't understand their motivations

      yunus ahmet yılmazyunus ahmet yılmazIl y a 2 heures
    • @yunus ahmet yılmaz wow can I not say what I just think about the speedrunning situation? Wow I’m so hurt •- •

      CandyPopCandyPopIl y a 2 heures
    • Why would they make marathon competitive either its like just swim for fun no need for competitive smh.... This is how you sound

      yunus ahmet yılmazyunus ahmet yılmazIl y a 3 heures
  • Well that was an utter waste of time, how did this get 238k likes. it's beating around the bush for 75% of the video..

    LoZTwilightLoZTwilightIl y a 3 heures
  • Buuuh Dream 🤮🤮 im 1 mllion times better than him at Minecraft ‼️🤌

    Don RUBIXDon RUBIXIl y a 3 heures
  • Frack YTFrack YTIl y a 3 heures
  • I know this is a pointless detail but you should express percent numbers as rounded up and not just show the first two decimal places, the probability of getting >51% heads with 10000 tosses is sum k=0 to 4900 (10000 choose 5100+k) * 2^(-10000) = 0.0232928 otherwise good video

    TheHockyeBoxTheHockyeBoxIl y a 3 heures
  • It really did get on the FRlift trending tab- damn.

    • Violet Dumplings •• Violet Dumplings •Il y a 3 heures
  • do a genshin impact theory

    PatricksPatricksIl y a 3 heures
  • I can hear one of my cs professors saving "it's not pronounced the same as latex the material..."

    Clint McGillClint McGillIl y a 3 heures
  • Fantastic editing as usual! Lol also thanks for the math lesson, Mat, I don't know that I needed it or that it'll stick, but for the moment I feel smarter!

    Queen PendragonQueen PendragonIl y a 3 heures
  • Lol it did end up on the FRlift trending page

    Dorian DiasDorian DiasIl y a 3 heures
  • the thing that there were chances of it being in 1 in a 7.5 trillion but it was still feasible... and thats maths you can't connect everything with statics 7.5 trillion is just a small number when you see it in terms of how many seed are possible.. if there are broken seed possible in quadrillions and people still found them..that conditon of ender pearls and blaze rods is feasible... conclusion on my terms: even if it was 1 in a 7.5 trillion it was feasible and running 7.5 trillion simulations don't actually mean that this will happen in those 7.5 trillion because we dont have a exaact number to count from which these possibilities are possible... they made him suspect and run numbers on him... and their evidence didn't have a concrete truth it was just mere possibilities.. they didn't searched his minecraft coda... and on based on possibilities it can't be verified that he cheated.. i mean my existence in 1 in 8.9 billion but i still exist :D.. take it like that and that is for every single of person on this planet so 8.9 billion powered by 8.9 billion thats a quite large number and we still exist as a indvidual... simple high school maths.. i don't know if he cheated or not but idk it dont seem like he did

    Jatin sehrawatJatin sehrawatIl y a 3 heures
    • Yo stop copy pasting this on random videos. It's honestly pathetic especially considering how stupid this comment is You are sooo misinformed it isnt even funny. His chances aren't 1 in 7.5 trillion it is 1 in 20 sextillion. 1 in 7.5 trillion is the chances of Amy speedrunner ever getting as lucky as dream after accounting for biases. Secondly the chances of you being here being 8.6 billion is meaningless because the reason that number is high is completely different from this. For example winning the lottery is a very low chance but no matter what someone will win the lottery. The 8.6 billion is the nearly same as this.

      yunus ahmet yılmazyunus ahmet yılmazIl y a 3 heures
  • He means yes... I think..

    Crazycuko187Crazycuko187Il y a 3 heures

    {•ShadøwZ•}{•ShadøwZ•}Il y a 3 heures
  • Did dream cheat? Yes Now you don't have to watch the video which doesn't actually give you the answer

    Just some steering wheelJust some steering wheelIl y a 3 heures
  • No he didn’t there ya go

    Leon AlmondLeon AlmondIl y a 3 heures

    MagnogenMagnogenIl y a 3 heures
  • please do a game theory episode on omori!

    tp .y.Il y a 3 heures
  • yes.

    Berislav FuračBerislav FuračIl y a 3 heures

    xeniabruhxeniabruhIl y a 3 heures
  • Dude why you gotta clickbait like that?

    Ealvarez GamingEalvarez GamingIl y a 3 heures
  • South African Lotto ticket :O

    Travis SadlerTravis SadlerIl y a 3 heures
  • Number 1 trending lmao

    Shrt Mato_99Shrt Mato_99Il y a 3 heures
  • I mean 7

    Michael EMichael EIl y a 3 heures
  • Don’t waste your time he doesn’t answer the question

    username not foundusername not foundIl y a 3 heures
  • I meant to say 70

    Michael EMichael EIl y a 3 heures
  • Imagine spitting on an entire community just to try save the image of one individual. How much did Dream pay?

    G M PG M PIl y a 3 heures
    • @G M P fair enough tbh, also I stg I'm not a stan

      What A WeirdoWhat A WeirdoIl y a 2 heures
    • @What A Weirdo I agree that I said the pay part just for the purposes of spicing up the comment

      G M PG M PIl y a 2 heures
    • Imagine not looking at odds, I mean, hes just trying to explain his theory. Maybe he shouldn't have shat on speed running, but you really think that dream played him to say ehh, why speedrun?

      What A WeirdoWhat A WeirdoIl y a 2 heures
  • No offense, mediocre content, overly edited, poorly made, click baited and you barely went over anything

    Yuki MizukiYuki MizukiIl y a 3 heures

    JamesPlayzJamesPlayzIl y a 3 heures
  • It's ironic that with a smaller amount of times tried the numbers seem to go more probable. And I honestly missed the point if he said definitive yes he did cheat or no he did not. It seems pretty much like he said dreams luck could have been just a happenstance that was misunderstood and overreacted to. But seriously how many of those speed runs or how many Potter trades have people actually witnessed besides dreams. How lucky is as when you honestly push the numbers up on the barter trades you are guaranteed to get Pearl at some point and to the game it doesn't matter when that point is so it could just as much give you something good or not. Fun fact in Mario Bros speed run the time that you end the course on could activate a very specific end-of-level fireworks display or if you were slightly slower you would not activate that fireworks and move ahead faster. That is a built-in highly unrecognizable jump in speed unless you're looking for it.

    Simon TracerSimon TracerIl y a 3 heures
  • Milking this aren't you. We need less of people like you around

    Happy ThoughtsHappy ThoughtsIl y a 3 heures
  • Imma be honest, cheater or not, IT'S SIMPLE ENTERTAINMENT.

    DJ LingDJ LingIl y a 3 heures
  • Finally, knowledge of latex is usefull for something other than writing a CV

    SniffersMcSniffersMcIl y a 3 heures
  • he really do be milkin it

    Josh TaylorJosh TaylorIl y a 3 heures
  • I think we all need to go outside

    Billy 1Billy 1Il y a 3 heures
  • Lol it ended up on 4 trending

    CatGoneMad!CatGoneMad!Il y a 3 heures
  • Click bait

    Sceonaid DoverSceonaid DoverIl y a 3 heures
    • Misleading, but clickbait? Ehhhh.... I dunno.

      Robotboy 64xRobotboy 64xIl y a 3 heures
    • No

      firenox GDfirenox GDIl y a 3 heures
  • Given FRlift sets what's trending, or at least moderates it, it's no surprise that a video that mocks being on it got put on it. Good as it may force the part 2 where he actually answers the question... But Matpat has left some part 2's on the burner for years.

    Masterblader158Masterblader158Il y a 3 heures
  • I got 11 ender pearls and i gave it 1 gold but 🍑 i beleave you

    Muhammad Abdullah BhattiMuhammad Abdullah BhattiIl y a 3 heures
    • @levi Ackerman idk but it happened

      Muhammad Abdullah BhattiMuhammad Abdullah BhattiIl y a 2 heures
    • stop lying an 2-4 enderpearl can only be obtained in one bartering

      levi Ackermanlevi AckermanIl y a 2 heures
  • it actually is on the trending page lol

    Bruno BlakeBruno BlakeIl y a 3 heures
  • Son you know nothing about regression

    Umar Amin lone BBA-29Umar Amin lone BBA-29Il y a 3 heures
  • The theorist is not real :0

    Degee Paul SericonDegee Paul SericonIl y a 3 heures
  • Bed recognize desperate explain stretch vehicle fifteen everyone repair.

    allison moyaallison moyaIl y a 3 heures